Ethereum dropped below $2,200 on Friday, losing nearly 3% as investors assessed persistent US inflation and the prospect of another Federal Reserve rate increase.
September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 0.5% month over month and 3.6% year over year.
Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually, also in line with expectations.
Following the release, CME FedWatch figures showed an approximately 80% probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting.
The data followed Fed’s Wednesday’s 10–2 decision to hold interest rates unchanged. The combination left investors facing the prospect of restrictive policy continuing despite the October pause.
Futures selling pressure persists despite positive funding
CryptoQuant data shows continued sell-side pressure in Ethereum’s Binance perpetual futures market.
The 30-day moving average of ETH Net Taker Volume reached a four-month low of approximately negative $166.6 million on October 16 before improving to negative $117.3 million on Wednesday.
The indicator measures the difference between aggressive buying and selling through market orders. Its continued negative reading suggests sellers remain more active, even though the imbalance has narrowed.
Funding rates have nevertheless stayed positive, meaning longs are paying shorts. That indicates demand for leveraged long exposure but does not establish a long-term bullish outlook.
Open interest has remained around 12.7 million ETH for much of October following September’s decline, suggesting outstanding exposure has broadly stabilized in token terms.
US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $21.4 million in net outflows on Wednesday, and another $105.48 million withdrawn on Thursday, extending their withdrawal streak to four sessions.
The continued redemptions point to subdued demand for those investment products as Ethereum struggles to recover.
Derivatives traders also experienced substantial forced closures. ETH liquidations totaled $360.5 million over the last 24 hours, with longs accounting for $305 million—approximately 84.7% of the total.
The concentration of losses among bullish positions highlights how the decline caught leveraged traders expecting a rebound.
The bearish trend was also escalated by Binance’s hack, with the attackers draining roughly $6 billion from the cryptocurrency exchange.
Ethereum trades below all four key moving averages
ETH’s daily technical structure remains bearish, with price below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages.
The 200-day EMA near $2,310 is the first important level buyers need to recover. Above it, resistance sits at $2,355 and the 100-day EMA is around $2,360.
The 20-day EMA at $2,409 and the 50-day EMA near $2,443 create further obstacles to a sustained recovery.
On the downside, immediate support lies around $2,200. This support level was briefly broken but price has rebounded almost instantly.
A daily candle close below that level could bring $2,107 into focus, followed by deeper technical floors at $1,972 and $1,854.
The Relative Strength Index stands at 29, below the conventional oversold threshold of 30. The Stochastic Oscillator reads 14, placing it in oversold territory.
These readings suggest selling momentum is stretched, but neither confirms that a reversal has begun.
Holding support near $2,205 and reclaiming the 200-day EMA would provide initial evidence of stabilization.
Until then, negative futures order flow and persistent ETF withdrawals leave the recovery outlook cautious.
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